The Goldwatcher : Demystifying Gold Investing黄金观察家：解密黄金投资 免费 夸克云 mobi azw3 pdf 下载 chm snb

　　Gold is a sterile asset that yields neither interest, dividends nor rentals and costs money to hold, but its price has surged to record levels, doubling since 2001.

Why? Who is buying it and what are their reasons?

How is its performance linked to the condition of the world economy and, especially the health of the US dollar?

And, most pressingly, how can you decide whether it represents a useful way of diversifying your portfolio, an asset you should include in your pension provisions – a good investment or an overvalued bandwagon?

Goldwatcher explains the pros and cons of gold as a twenty first century investment – when investing makes sense, when prices make sense and when they don’t.

The book addresses everything the independent investor needs to know about investing in gold.

It

addresses gold’s history as a repository of value; what drives supply and demand, why and how the US dollar and global macroeconomic factors affect gold price, how experts in the filed of money management see its prospects and when prices are reasonable.

Situations are explained in which gold will be invaluable to investors as stateless money that keeps its value even in the worst of times; a niche investment with value underpinned by scarcity; an investment to include in a portfolio to spread risks; and a suitable investment to include in pension provisions.

As unbiased analysts the authors are neither bulls or bears, rather they examine different scenarios that could play out in currency and financial markets, the effects they would have on investors, and what investors can do to protect themselves from adverse developments.

Contents

Foreword by Dr Marc Faber

List of Charts and Tables

Acknowledgements

PART ONE – DEMYSTIFYING THE GOLD PRICE

　1. Introduction: Why Gold?

　　Unbiased Research

　　The Stateless Money Franchise

　　Crisis and Financial Market Risk Insurance

　　A Niche Investment

　　Squaring a Valuation Circle

　　Leading Questions on Reasonable Prices

　　Credible Analysis and Commentary

　　US Defi cits and Missions Possible and

　　Impossible

　　The Road to Global Economic Rebalancing

　　Why Gold Makes Sense Now

　　Insight into the Post 9/11 World and the Jihad

　　against America

　2. The Gold Mining Industry

　　Gold Mining Past and Present

　　Rising Costs and Declining Production

　　South Africa

　　The Bear Market for Gold in the 1980s and 1990s

　　Rising Mining Costs and South Africa’s Marginal

　　Resources

　3. Gold Supply and Demand

　　Part One: Introduction to Gold Exchange Traded

　　　Funds – contributed by Neil Behrmann,

　　　Editor of Exchange Traded Gold

　　　A New Dynamic in the Supply and

　　　Demand Equation

　　Part Two: Supply and Demand Fundamentals and Swing Factors

　　Supply and Demand Fundamentals

　　Growing Investor Demand

　　Swing Factors Affecting Supply and

　　Demand

　　The Washington Agreement

　　Exchange Traded Funds and Sovereign

　　Wealth Funds

　　Do Central Banks Still Need Gold and

　　does Gold Still Need Central Banks?

　4. The Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard

　　Introduction: The Stateless Money Franchise

　　Unfi nished Business

　　The Gold Standard and the Gold Exchange

　　Standard

　　Gold in 1980 and 2008

　　Time Magazine on Bring Back the Gold Standard

　　Robert Mundell on Gold at $10 000

　　The Offi cial US Enquiry into Restoring the

　　Gold Standard in 1982

　　Overview on the Gold Standard

　　Turning Points

　　How the Gold Standard Fared

　　US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Great

　　Depression

　　The Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression

　　Roosevelt and the Birth of the Gold Exchange

　　Standard

　　The Post World War II Bretton Woods Accord,

　　the Dollar and the IMF

　　The Triffi n Dilemma and the Gold Pool

　　Vietnam, Charles de Gaulle, Richard Nixon and

　　the End of the Gold Standard

　　Conclusion

5. The Dollar Standard and the ‘Defi cit without

　　Tears’

　　The Dangers of Uncharted Waters

　　The Traditional View

　　A New Paradigm: The Bretton Woods II Theory

　　Nouriel Roubini’s Criticism of Bretton Woods II

　　The Defi cit without Tears

　　Ben Bernanke

　　Miranda Xafa

　　Obstfeld and Rogoff

　　Barry Eichengreen

　　Assessing the Risks of a Hard Landing for the

　　Dollar

　　This Won’t be Fun

　　Exchange Rates

　　US Sovereign Debt Credit Standing

　　George Soros on the Demise of the Dollar

　　Standard

　　Conclusion

6. The Economic Consequences of 9/11 and

　　George W. Bush

　　Fire Ready Aim

　　War Costs without Any Sacrifi ce by Americans

　　Déjà Vu Vietnam?

　　Liquidity

　　Tax Cuts, Defi cits and Debts

　　‘Implicit Debt’ on Entitlement Commitments

　　Bush’s Ownership Society: Dismantling the

　　Barriers to Home Ownership and the Real

　　Estate Bubble

　　Borrowings Using the House as an ATM

　　Budgets, Social Security and Unfunded

　　Entitlement Commitments

　　President Bush and Social Security Reform

　　Bottom Line: Federal US Fiscal Policy Remains

　　Unsustainable

　　The Bottom Line: Federal Fiscal Policy is

　　Unsustainable

　　The Realities of Implicit Debt and

　　Generational Accounting

　　Why We Should Consider Gold

　　For How Long Will Asians go on Lending for

　　Americans to go on Spending?

　7. The End of Cheap Oil, ‘Chindia’ and Other

　　Tipping Points to Instability

　　World Economic Forum Annual Risks Review

　　The End of the Days of Cheap Oil

　　Conclusions from the International Energy

　　Association 2007 Outlook

　　A Finance-based Economy with Excessive Debt

　　Dollar Falls as a Tipping Point

　　Sovereign Wealth Funds

　　Will Alternative Energy Come to the Rescue?

　8. Globalisation & Global Economic Rebalancing

　　Introduction: Skating on Thin Ice

　　Financial Imbalances and Global Economic

　　Meltdown

　　Protectionism, Mercantilism and Mutual Interest

　　IMF Engagement on Global Economic

　　Imbalances

　　Extracts from Headline Comments from IMF

　　Staff Report on Financial Imbalances

　　The $ as America’s Currency and Everyone Else’s

　　Problem Again?

　　Scenarios Outlined by the IMF

　　Outcome of the IMF Consultations

　　China’s Approach to Growth, Reform and

　　Stability

　　Sustainable Development as China’s Priority

　　China’s Current Account Surplus

　　Approach Emphasizes Stability

　　US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s Approach to

　　Cooperation with China

　　Can the IMF Avoid Global Financial Meltdown?

　9. Gold Prices: Infl ation, Defl ation, Booms and Busts

　　Introduction: A Crisis of Confi dence

　　Information Resources Including the LBMA

　　Annual Gold Price Forecasts

　　Accessible Information

　　Drawing the Threads Together

　　Prospects for Gold

　　The Refl ationary Rescue

　　An ‘Anti Risk Strategy’

　　Messages from History

　　Price Overshoots

　　What’s Different this Time?

　　Gold Price Suppression

　　A One Way Risk to Prices

　　Papering Over the Cracks

　　Do Trees Grow to Heaven?

　10. Investing Choices

　　Bullion, Coins, Shares in Funds and Mining

　　Companies

　　Gold Bullion and Coins

　　Gold Coins and Bullion Bars

　　Advice from a Coin Dealer

　　Exchange Traded Funds

　　Futures Contracts and Increased Risk Reward

　　Exposure with all Derivatives

　　Gold Mining Shares and Gold Funds

　　Investing in Gold Mining Shares and Gold Funds

　　Timing and Strategies

　　Taxation

　　‘How to’ Resources for Trading and Monitoring

　　Eagle Wing Research on Gold Funds

PART TWO – GOLD INVESTING STRATEGIES

　BY FRANK HOLMES

　11. Inside U.S. Global Investors

　　Our Golden Rule: Moderation

　　How We Work

　12. Investing in Gold Equities

　　What’s Driving Gold?

　　The Investing Universe

　　Gold Stock Funds

　　The Return on Capital Model

　　The Five Ms

　　Managing Volatility

　　Correlation

　　Gold Seasonality

　13. Gold Mining Opportunities and Threats

　　Geographical Shift

　　Gold Production Peak

　　Exploration Spending

　　Industry Consolidation

　　Rising Operating Costs

　　Summary

　　PART THREE – APPENDIX

　　Fact Book

　　Chart Book

　　Gold: Chronology 　　

Notes

Bibliography

Webliography

Index

John Katz is an analyst, strategist and financial writer based in London. To gain experience and qualifications in the Financial Services Industry he completed the necessary exams to qualify as an approved Securities Dealer and Trader and, while working f

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Gold is a sterile asset that yields neither interest, dividends nor rentals and costs money to hold, but its price has surged to record levels, doubling since 2001. Why? Who is buying it and what are their reasons? How is its performance linked to the condition of the world economy and, especially the health of the US dollar? And, most pressingly, how can you decide whether it represents a useful way of diversifying your portfolio, an asset you should include in your pension provisions – a good investment or an overvalued bandwagon? Goldwatcher explains the pros and cons of gold as a twenty first century investment – when investing makes sense, when prices make sense and when they don’t. The book addresses everything the independent investor needs to know about investing in gold. It addresses gold’s history as a repository of value; what drives supply and demand, why and how the US dollar and global macroeconomic factors affect gold price, how experts in the filed of money management see its prospects and when prices are reasonable. Situations are explained in which gold will be invaluable to investors as stateless money that keeps its value even in the worst of times; a niche investment with value underpinned by scarcity; an investment to include in a portfolio to spread risks; and a suitable investment to include in pension provisions. As unbiased analysts the authors are neither bulls or bears, rather they examine different scenarios that could play out in currency and financial markets, the effects they would have on investors, and what investors can do to protect themselves from adverse developments.